Armenia's parliamentary elections on Sunday are set to be a pivotal moment, with the country's future direction hanging in the balance. The election comes amid heightened tensions with Russia, which has imposed a series of trade restrictions, including a ban on Armenian cognac, in an apparent bid to exert political pressure. This move is part of a broader strategy to discourage Armenia's westward tilt, which has been a defining feature of its foreign policy under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's leadership.
The relationship between Armenia and Russia has been strained since Azerbaijan's seizure of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023, which led to a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians. This event exposed the limitations of Russia's security guarantees and prompted officials in Yerevan to question the value of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a Moscow-led military alliance. Pashinyan's decision to suspend Armenia's participation in the CSTO further strained ties.
Pashinyan's push for closer ties with Europe and his efforts to diversify Armenia's partnerships, including with the US and the EU, have not gone unnoticed by Moscow. The Kremlin has responded with a mix of political pressure and economic sanctions, including the ban on Armenian cognac, which is a significant source of revenue for the country. The Russian government has also hinted at reducing Armenia's access to subsidised gas, a vital component of its economy.
Despite these challenges, Pashinyan's party, the Civil Contract, is expected to emerge as the largest political force in the elections, according to opinion polls. This is largely due to the perceived closeness of the opposition to Russia, which has discredited them in the eyes of the public. Pashinyan's campaign has focused on a vision of Armenia as a regional transit hub, reconnecting long-closed borders and moving beyond decades of conflict and poor connectivity.
However, the election is not without controversy. Pashinyan's democratic record has been called into question, with dozens of opposition activists detained in the run-up to the election, including allies of the main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan. The EU has announced an initial €50m economic support package to help Armenia weather Russian trade pressure, while Ukraine has begun importing Armenian roses as a symbolic gesture of solidarity.
In conclusion, Armenia's parliamentary elections are a critical juncture, with the country's future direction and its relationship with Russia at stake. The outcome will have significant implications for the region's geopolitical landscape and the balance of power between Armenia and its international partners.
